Friday, February 5, 2010

Watching rentals for signs of life

Are we officially into Recovery yet? The answer may come as quickly as next weekend.

That’s President’s Day weekend, which is a holy day of another sort on the East End: the traditional kickoff of the summer rental season. If you’re thirsty for economic tea leaves, you could do worse than reading these.

“President’s Day weekend is when people really start looking, but last year it didn’t really happen,” Karli Kittine of Corcoran Group Real Estate in Southampton told me this week. “It started much later.”

That’s an indicator. In the wintry grip of the financial crisis, summer people were nervous, like skittish antelopes. Not only did they come late to the watering hole, they came for briefer sips.

“It was still a decent season but [activity started] closer to Memorial Day,” Kittine said. Also, there tended to be more short-term rentals and fewer for the full season.

There’s another force at work and it has to do with plumage. “I think people don’t want to be showy” in this bleak climate, Kittine said, (noting with a laugh that, for herself, that’s not an issue). “Instead of $150,000 for the full season, they might do $50,000 for August through Labor Day. But be a little more conscious about it.”

Laura Holson mentioned that trend in her recent New York Times column.

“Now,” she wrote, “after a year of self-imposed austerity and in what is shaping up as a spectacular bonus season, the Wall Street crowd is shaking off what one luxury retailer called its ‘frugal fatigue.’ Unlike earlier spending sprees, however, the consumption will be a lot less conspicuous.”

That’s widely expected to spark a boost in sales and rentals out east, but an interesting spin might be a continued move toward the North Fork, where lots more living can be had if renters are willing to make do with a little less glam.

Back in the Hamptons, as indicators go, the high-end rental market isn’t much of a bellwether, according to Judi Desiderio, president and chief executive of Town and Country Real Estate. Speaking of the rarefied realm of oceanfront rentals, she said, “You can count them on one hand, so they’re going to go.” More telling is activity in lower price ranges “If you have a four- or five-bedroom north of the highway in the woods with a pool, unless it’s priced right and dressed beautifully, it might not get rented.”

Thus, it’s still a buyers’ market, Desiderio said, and canny renters can use that to their advantage. They know that many owners “would prefer to have a real person in [a house] than leave it vacant,” she said, “so they can negotiate a couple weeks on either side [of a short-term rental] for not much money.”

Desiderio did a study on renters and buyers a few years ago, finding that about 70 percent come from New York City and as many as 25 percent from abroad, mainly Europe. In years past that foreign infusion seemed the least predictable, but now it’s the Gotham escapees who are getting hard to prejudge, as they deal with so many influences, including, of course, post-traumatic stress from the market plunge. There are all the Wall Streeters who lost their jobs and bonuses. More subtle will be the behavior of those financiers who didn’t lose their jobs and bonuses but are wrestling with the fear of seeming ostentatious. The coming weekend “will be a good indicator of what’s going on the city,” Desiderio said.

If the recovery is, in fact, afoot, it’s likely that a lot of the rental picture will be in focus by the end of President’s Day weekend or at least the weekend after, when “close to 50 percent” of the deals traditionally have been done, according to Desiderio. Does she anticipate fireworks?

“I’ve been monotoring the market for close to 30 years,” she said. “Truth be told, a trend started in August. Momentum is building. It’s a good market, not great. Nowhere near the top or bottom.”

So we’re stuck in limbo?

“No, it’s healthy,” she said. “It’s still a buyers’ market, but we’re not seeing the market come down. A floor’s been established and it’s holding strong.”


Long Island Business News / February 4, 2010

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Hamptons needs Wall St. bonuses

If you’re snowed in on the East End and want to fill a few idle hours, try this: Open the Yellow Pages, call all the investment houses in the Hamptons and ask what they think about the big Wall Street bonuses.

First you’ll be struck by the many phones that simply don’t answer. Then there are the brusque deflections. “No, no, we don’t do anything like that,” said one woman at a place that begins with “Citi.”

I was thinking about the bonuses because the health of the Hamptons economy is often linked to the magnitude of the annual Wall Street baksheesh. You don’t have to look hard to find connections between the two out there in the Zeitgeist. In his Wall Street Journal column, James B. Stewart recently wrote that despite the biggest bonuses ever, some Wall Streeters are complaining that not enough will be in cash, causing a liquidity squeeze.

“I’ve been wondering just what kind of squeeze that might be,” Stewart stewed. He then went on to list a mogul’s likely expenses, including, of course, “that shingle-style mansion in East Hampton (not even on the beach) for $6.5 million.” And “two Mercedes SUVs for the Hamptons ($120,000).”

The East Hampton Star has been thinking about it too, as revealed in a recent story subheaded, “Real estate agents hope for Wall Street trickle-down.” Kate Meier’s lede summed up our ethical dilemma neatly: “Whatever the moral implications of doling out bonuses exponentially higher than most Americans’ annual income, real estate professionals agree that big payouts on Wall Street will mean good things for the market here.”

While doing my own stewing about it all, I unexpectedly hit paydirt. A Hamptons financier returned my call.
It was Marc Lowlicht, president of the wealth management division of Further Lane Asset Management. The company has offices in Manhattan, East Hampton, San Francisco and Santa Fe, but Further Lane is in East Hampton, so I think we can claim it as ours. Also, that’s where Lowlicht is based, where his home is and where his two kids are in school.

Lowlicht called the big bonus/big greed screed “a huge generalization.” There are plenty of financiers who aren’t getting these lavish bonuses, he said. Him, for instance.

Also his boss, J. Michael Araiz. “He’s a perfect example,” Lowlicht said. “He’s not taking any pay this year.” Instead, he’s using the money to pay the salaries of his 25 employees.

Furthermore, he said the bonuses are a major part of Wall Street compensation, for which people work hard and do important things. “If we raise $50 million for an alternative energy company that opens a plant in the Midwest and hires 150 new people, I think that’s value added. We’re improving the economy.”

But the AIG bonuses are “a whole different story,” he said. “I don’t think firms bailed out by the public should be in the same boat. You don’t get bonuses for bad management. I think what AIG did is disgraceful.”

As for the Hamptons and its perceived symbiosis with Wall Street greed, he said, “There will always be a love/hate relationship with the rest of the world,” but that’s not the way it feels from the inside. “Kids from families with lots of money go to school with the kids of day workers,” he said. “We’re all intermingled and we all get along.”

And at present, by the way, the Hamptons economy “is not great,” he said. “A lot of people are struggling. I know people who live like multimillionaires whose net worth is 70 grand. One of the most difficult things is to go from a certain lifestyle to a lesser one. People don’t go from driving a Lexus to a Toyota without suffering a lot.”

But as ever, the Hamptons will recover. “I think the market is stabilizing,” he said. And despite the steepness of the plunge, Lowlicht thinks the effects will linger only three to five years, instead of the usual five to seven.

“I think some policies are taking hold,” Lowlicht said.

Growth will be “muted,” but “we always find our way out. I think it’s a good dose of medicine. I think it’s put us back on the track of how to behave responsibly.”


Long Island Business News / January 27, 2010

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Riverhead’s problems the stuff of myth

The Greeks had their Minotaur, a bull-headed beast who dwelt at the center of the Labyrinth. Every once in a while some tender young citizens would be sent in to be eaten. That’s the way they rolled back then.

We’re much more modern. Our version of the Labyrinth is downtown Riverhead and the Minotaur is all the empty storefronts, recently estimated at a depressing 80 percent of the whole. Instead of youths, we send in supervisors to be sacrificed occasionally.

The latest to be dispatched was Phil Cardinale, who served in Riverhead’s top spot for three terms before he was vanquished by Sean Walter in the recent election. “The fall of downtown” was a key battle cry of the Walter campaign and it resonated.

Of course there were other issues at play as well, and other mythologies too. For instance, the fourth-term curse. This is a malady that’s brought down many a pol over the years, from Southampton Supervisor Skip Heaney to Southold Supervisor Jean Cochran to Congressman Michael Forbes, then of Riverhead. Also falling victim was U.S. Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, where there have been so many fourth-term Senate failures that they have a special name for it, “Karl’s Curse,” which is another story.

There are lots of reasons for the fourth-term jinx. The main one is this: The friction of the first three has usually sharpened enough knives to bring almost anybody down.

Now it’s Walter’s turn to take a stab at the bull-headed beast. He used his inaugural address to declare war.

“The complaining and crying about downtown ends today,” vowed the newly minted supervisor, as quoted by The News-Review. “We cannot and I will not accept failure as an option. We are going to dramatically change downtown for the better. Not with futuristic plans that sit on artists’ easels but with a real approach that brings businesspeople, capital sources and creativity together, and allows government to act as a facilitator, not a roadblock.”

That easels remark was a sharp stab at Cardinale, who had such high hopes for the gaudy $500 million Apollo Real Estate Advisors downtown renaissance plan, of which not a stick got built. In a candidates’ forum in October, Walter charged, “Apollo, in my opinion, is the death knell of downtown Riverhead.” (Earlier in the campaign, citing the 2001 failure to transform the Suffolk Theatre into a performing arts center, he said, “That event precipitated the fall of downtown.”)

Whatever killed the place, he made it clear it was all Cardinale’s fault. How will Walter do it differently? How can we know that he won’t be just the latest supervisor thrown to the Minotaur?

Here’s Walter’s plan, as announced at his inauguration: “We will renew downtown the old-fashioned way, with open green spaces and by encouraging the arts, fostering the history of our downtown and creating a reason for people to come downtown.”

Well, good luck with that.

Walter isn’t going into this battle alone; he’ll be backed by an all-Republican town board. Maybe unanimity will help, but political coloration hasn’t made any difference to the Minotaur in the past. Cardinale, a Democrat, had his Apollo (speaking of Greek mythology). A decade before him came Republican Supervisor Jim Stark, under whom Route 58’s Tanger Outlets arrived. And if that mega-mall wasn’t enough, a Tanger food court was eventually (somehow) allowed, eliminating the last flimsy reason for the northern hordes to venture downtown.

In between were Independent Vinnie Villella and Republican Bob Kozakiewicz. Villella campaigned to save downtown and then, once elected, promptly closed his downtown shoe store. Another morsel for the Minotaur.

The point is that downtown Riverhead is a beast of a problem that’s proven itself impervious to everything, especially words hurled by politicians. Despite the new supervisor’s ridicule of easels, it’s going to take some solid plans launched by bold investors. Things like the 101-room Hyatt Palace hotel to be built beside Atlantis Marine World Aquarium, a brave venture now backed by a $2.4 million state grant.

Eventually something like that, along with a global economy no longer in crisis, will start the long-awaited downtown Riverhead renaissance. And whoever’s sitting in the supervisor’s chair will get credit for being the hero who slew the Minotaur.


Long Island Business News / January 20, 2010

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Winterspring music warms venues

Over time, the East End has done an impressive job of expanding its seasons. A brief history:

In the beginning there was summer, when Manhattan tycoons would send their families out east for the cooling breezes and waters, then would follow on the Friday afternoon train.

Eventually our wholesale farms made the transition to retail/agritainment, and presto: Fall was born. When you see our slender east-west roads packed solid all the way back to the LIE in October, you learn the hard way how huge pumpkin season has become.

And yea, there cometh Christmastide, with masses of West Enders piling into Jeeps to slouch east for a day of tree-hunting and last stops at the vineyards for fortification.

All that’s left is the current period, which could be bundled up and called winterspring because it lacks the gusto to do either well. Sometimes there’s snow but, until Riverhead Resorts builds its indoor Aspen (any day now) there’s no ski mountain. Spring is kind of like winter until the temperature suddenly spikes 40 degrees on Memorial Day and it’s “summer” again.

So the question for East End merchants has been, what to do about winterspring? Some retailers simply give up, close down and wait for the hordes to return. Some shops and restaurants stay open, earning our admiration and appreciation. But some entrepreneurial sorts have taken up the cudgel, trying to beat gold from the lead of winterspring.

One such effort is Jazz on the Vine, which is the centerpiece of Winterfest, an East End business collaboration begun five years ago. Winterfest itself “didn’t have a whole lot of success,” in the words of Pat Snyder, executive director of the East End Arts Council. “The idea was, if they did something together, we would support the joint effort, placing music [there].” Such as, “if a B&B and a vineyard got together … It was all kind of fuzzy.”

Clarity came three years ago with Jazz on the Vine, which was and is a straight infusion of free (FREE!) musical performances at East End venues, backed Suffolk County Economic Development, the Long Island Convention & Visitor Bureau, the Long Island Wine Council and the EEAC.

It was an immediate hit. Year one featured five winterspring weekends and 50 concerts at area vineyards. Last year the numbers spiked to six weekends and 66 concerts, boosted by the addition of restaurants and hotels to the venue list. Meanwhile, funding grew to some $100,000.

This year the numbers are staying flat, thanks (or rather, no thanks) to pandemic cuts in arts funding. Nevertheless, Jazz on the Vine has become a big blast of bright in the dark months out east. “Oh my gosh, it’s been enormous,” Snyder said when asked about its impact. “Before this the vineyards were totally quiet during February and March. Now they’re filled to capacity during concerts.” Venue revenue is up 200 percent, she said. She’s heard of vineyard owners out in their icy parking lots directing jazz fans to other vineyards because they were overflowing.

“The energy level is really high throughout the whole period,” Snyder said. Last year, after a performance by Bakithi Khumalo, the renowned South African bassist who’s backed everyone from Cyndi Lauper to Paul Simon, musicians from other concerts flocked to Khumalo’s side and the jamming went on deep into the wintry night.

An addition this year is support and participation by Steinway & Sons. And so, if attendees note an emphasis on piano solos, here’s why: The company is sending Steinways from its new showroom in Melville for piano-centric performances.

Snyder gave up her Christmas vacation for this, making myriad arrangements, finalizing 66 musician contracts, etc. “But it pays off in February and March,” she said. It helps that she’s a big jazz fan.

Styles range all over, from Dixieland to avant garde. And the rewards are rangy too. “Everyone benefits,” Snyder said. “Vineyards, restaurants, hotels, and musicians too.”

This year’s concerts begin with JaLaLa on Feb. 6 at Raphael in Peconic. They end with the last of the Steinway series on March 21, with Nilson Matta Brazilian Voyage Trio at the new Sparkling Pointe in Southold.


Long Island Business News / January 14, 2010

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

One restaurant shakes off recession

It’s always interesting to watch the migration of businesses around the East End. Some switch from the North Fork to the South for various reasons. Some do the reverse. And some go biforkal.

One that made a move from South to North is The Clearing House eXchange, the big consignment shop that came up from Southampton three years ago. Co-owner Victoria Collett told me the other day that the move was based on a desire to expand, but also on the differing attitudes North and South. “There’s a perception of the Hamptons that you overpay for what you buy,” she said. “That’s not the case in our store, but there isn’t that perception on the North Fork.”

The move has been a success, according to Collett. The store’s fans have had no trouble adjusting to the new site, many regulars devotedly making the trip up from the Hamptons.

Meanwhile, Love Lane Kitchen is poised to go biforkal. In its three short years, the Mattituck restaurant has become a central part of the North Fork scene. Based on its success, it’s now adding a second location at Poxabogue Golf Course in Wainscott.

“We’ve found a niche,” owner Mike Avella told me. “High-quality casual food with good value at reasonable prices, with a focus on local produce all prepared fresh.”

Reviewers tend to apply descriptions like “cute,” “quaint,” “adorable” and “like you’ve stepped onto the set of a ’50s TV show.” But the wording gets more serious on the subject of the food, which includes all kinds of interesting creations, from a Kobe beef hot dog to duck tagine, served in a domed Moroccan cooking vessel. They even do their own coffee roasting.

There’s an easy way to tell if the Kitchen is for real: Just cook up a Great Recession and then check its receipts. “Whether we’re just hitting our stride or for whatever reason, we’re up a lot this year – 24 percent,” Avella said. Even he considers it “unexpected” in the midst of “a tough year” that’s seen other restaurants closing.

One of those getting out is Dan Murray of Danny’s Poxabogue CafĂ©, a breakfast/lunch institution at the golf course. After encountering some lease disputes with the landlords (Southampton and East Hampton towns), he’s moving on and Love Lane Kitchen is moving in. Avella’s thinking went as follows: “The opportunity came along; we’ve got a concept that’s worked – we’ll do it.”

The rent is double what he’s paying in Mattituck (“at the upper limit of what I think is reasonable”), but for that he gets a slightly bigger space (35 tables inside and about as many out) and that “terrific location” right on Montauk Highway.

He thinks the Kitchen’s niche is underserved on the South Fork, and so is hopeful for another warm response. After doing some renovations, including a new kitchen, he hopes to be cooking by April.

Avella worked as a self-described computer geek on Wall Street for nearly 20 years before moving on, going to culinary school and working in a series of restaurants all over the country. Then a friend told him that Connie’s Bake Shop & Cafe on Love Lane was closing. “It seemed like a nice fit,” Avella said. “And not a lot of money at the time.”

Three years later he’s in love with Love Lane and what it’s brought him. He tells his staff they’re not in the restaurant business but the hospitality business, and to “welcome customers like they would in their own home.” He sends staffers to conventions around the country to “bring back ideas and enthusiasm.” Said Avella, “It seems to have been successful. I’ve got such a terrific staff, and some have been here almost since we opened.”

He’s done the math and expects operating two restaurants on two forks will be double the work and maybe more, but that’s no deterrent. “I never worked this hard on Wall Street,” he said. Also, “I never expected to get rich here, and so far it’s bearing out.”

But “I love my restaurant,” he said. “I love my staff and my customers. I love getting to know my neighbors.”

Evidently the place is aptly named.


Long Island Business News / January 6, 2010

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Old-world craftsman, new-world tech

There was an interesting exchange on Robert Meyer’s vintage guitars Web site a while back. The headline (“Collecting Vintage Guitars is a Financially Sound Investment”) insistently summed it up. Then, as evidence, Meyer went on to spin tales of a 1959 Fender Sunburst Stratocaster ($250 new) now bringing $17,000. And Eric Clapton’s favorite Strat from the ’70s, which sold for almost a million.

“Values only continue to go up,” Meyer wrote. To which a commenter replied, “Yes, interesting, but with the credit crisis, where will the vintage market be in a year?”

Meyer published his article on Sept. 28, 2008. The next day Congress rejected the $700 billion bailout package and $1.2 trillion disappeared from the U.S. stock market. And now James R. Baker of Shoreham can tell you where the vintage guitar market is a year and a few months later.

“This year has been very hard,” he told me the other day. In fact, he said, “I’m not sure why I’ve survived all these years” while other guitar makers and restorers have gone out of business.

A big reason is that Baker learned early on the value of diversifying. Raised in Queens, he lived in Huntington in the ’70s and ’80s and worked in Manhattan for design companies, doing projects of every kind, including furniture.

At his first firm his boss drove home the eggs-in-many-baskets philosophy. “All it takes is a slowdown and you’re really in trouble,” he was catechized. “That’s why I still make furniture and do design work.”

With the ’80s recession he and his family moved to Shoreham, which he describes as “a wonderful place – so many creative people here.”

Now another recession is gnawing and Baker is again finding ways to survive. That involves a three-prong assault, with an eBay outlet for lower-end instruments, a Web site for his most avant-garde guitars and auction houses for historic pieces. It’s all backed up by his custom furniture work. Plus he’s working on a book, which, fittingly, is about managing creative work.

Other than guitars, that’s the subject Baker is hottest on: the financing struggle faced by creative people in a bottom-line world. If you have a pizza place, no problem, he fumes. But if you make rare guitars, you’re in a gray area, regardless of the fact that you’ve never missed a bill payment. “And don’t even get me started on ARC loans.”

His solution: Work even harder, leverage your house and use credit cards when necessary. “What else can you do?” he said.

Countering the economic angst is the beauty of the work, which is its own reward. Baker loves woodworking and his James R. Baker guitars, which sell in the $4,000 range, show it. He’s one of a smallish breed devoted to the survival of archtop guitars. But that’s not his only focus. “My favorite guitars are the instruments with a story,” he said. “I could give you a 15-minute history on almost every one in my collection.”

Such as his Mario Maccaferri guitar, one of the first made by plastic injection. No, it’s not a classic rosewood Martin, but it represents a watershed moment in guitar history. “He had the guts to invent the next generation,” prefiguring Ovation and the others, Baker said.

Not that he doesn’t have his own stash of magnificent old Martins and Gibsons, plus some very rare instruments, such as a 1790s Fabricatore, dating back to the guitar’s very beginnings.

What’s striking about it all is that such reverence for old-world craftsmanship can find a place in modern times. A Web site offering such gems is like a detour in a time machine.

Baker is excited about it and about reaching a new generation.

“Kids today are really amazing,” he said. “So smart, so quick to absorb new things. They don’t have the cultural boundaries my generation had.” In other words, they’re not locked into a Les Paul as the only guitar worth wanting. “They’re not attached to one look,” he said. “Their vistas are open wide.”

And so, despite the struggles and the recession, Baker is optimistic that his guitars will play on. An indicator: He’s only been marketing via the Internet a short while but already he’s sold six guitars.

Long Island Business News / December 29, 2009

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Spreading some holiday deer

You think your job is hard, try finding a heartwarming economic column to wrap up 2009. I asked around the East End and came up with some pretty threadbare suggestions. For instance this: “Well,” said my dentist, Dr. Al, “body shops are busy because of all the deer accidents.”

And that was the best of them.

But as East Enders know, the deer menace is considerable, growing and getting lots of press. When “Today” show host Matt Lauer collided with one in the Hamptons in March it was big news. Adding impact was the fact that Lauer was on his bike at the time.

A while back a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration study estimated that 1.5 million deer crashes occur each year causing $1.1 billion in damage and 150 deaths, and the totals are rising. The study listed the top 10 crash states and New York wasn’t on the list, but if it were broken down by towns, I’ll bet the East End would be way up there.

All those collisions mean business. Are the numbers up? “Absolutely,” said Brian Klos of Ted’s Auto Body in Peconic. “Maybe 10 cars a week – twice as much as ever.”

Deer strikes account for 20 to 30 percent of business at Fireplace Auto Collision in East Hampton, reported office manager Lily Paulovic. One day last year they took in a record nine such cars in a single day, until it became ridiculous. The numbers were big last year and about the same this year. “They’re everywhere,” Paulovic said. The other day she was driving her truck, glanced over and saw a deer running alongside, like traffic.

Same thing, of course, on Shelter Island, which has evolved into virtually a moated deer community. “I’ve never seen this many,” said George Hubbard at Hubbard’s Repair Shop. “They come walking right down the street in broad daylight.”

When not cruising the streets, deer are devouring vegetation. New York state took it seriously enough to send Suffolk County almost $1 million for agricultural deer fencing this year. Last year 66 farmers won such grants, and each got some $14,000 worth of fencing, according to a story in The Suffolk Times.

“We employ fencers and give them a lot of work,” Vickie Cardaro of Buttercup Farms on Shelter Island told me. But a hungry doe is persistent, and so fencing strategy has had to become almost a military operation. These days she favors the “double-four” technique, which involves two four-foot fences four feet apart. “Deer have very poor depth perception,” she said. The double hurdle apparently is enough to discourage leaping.

As for landscaping, after 11 years in the trenches Cardaro said she’s “got it down to a science.” Her weapons: boxwood, ornamental nepeta and a few others. Eight years ago spirea used to work “but now they eat that too,” she said. “I’ve learned that deer can change diets over the years.”

How much of Cardaro’s career is tied up in deer management? “One hundred percent,” she said. “My whole life is entirely about the deer.” Every season has its challenges. “After Labor Day we have to wrap trees with PVC or chicken wire.” Otherwise, during rutting season, stags rubbing velvet off their new antlers will destroy tree bark, which can lead to infestations, etc.

Much of her fencing business goes to Kingdom Fence in Riverhead, whose co-owner Bob Keen agrees that the double-four can be effective and less visually intrusive than taller blockades. Sometimes homeowners get so frustrated they spend as much as $20,000 putting up super structures to protect their properties. “Some homes look like concentration camps,” he said.

A hint of the desperation was evident at a recent Southampton Village Board meeting. Up for discussion was Mayor Mark Epley’s proposed law to allow residents to defend their homes with bows and arrows. Village officials were hesitant out of concern that arrows might zing into innocent passers-by.

At that point in the meeting, according to the Southampton Press story, village resident Heide Loefken asked if it would be OK if she dug a hole and enticed the deer to fall into it, “like a grave.” Said Loefken, “I’ve thought about this deeply.”

Long Island Business News / December 22, 2009